Why I Still Like Hillary’s Odds in the Democratic Race


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I do enjoy that the Democrats have somewhat of a primary race for the Presidency. A healthy debate is good for a party, and a healthy campaign is good for the eventual nominee. Bernie Sanders is doing a great job in his campaign, but I believe that nominee is still going to be Hillary Clinton, when the dust settles. It is not because she is inevitable. It is because she is still the strongest candidate amongst our Democratic base.

Consider:

  • Joe Biden is polling about as positive as he ever has in his life. The Vice-President is tremendously popular. Even so, when he is included in polls, Hillary Clinton still leads the field by a “beyond margin of error” number.
  • The Vice-President’s numbers are likely to go down once he is an actual candidate for President. You can’t stay above the fray as a candidate. He has never polled this well as an actual candidate, so he can expect somewhat of a drop.
  • When Biden is removed from the poll, Clinton leads by a large, healthy margin over Bernie Sanders. Biden currently takes support from Clinton. This means she knows who her competition is coming in, and even with him in, she still wins.
  • Hillary just had an awful Summer of news, and still leads.
  • Hillary still holds tremendous numbers with African-Americans in the primaries, a key voting group on Super Tuesday in the South.
  • Hillary is still getting all the key endorsements, even amidst that bad news.
  • Hillary’s candidacy is still historic. She would still be the first female President. There is still a coalition of voters in the Democratic Party who want to see her achieve that history.
  • Hillary still leads the money race.
  • Once debates start, and a campaign breaks out, she is more likely to move on from her negative headlines.
  • Hillary has been durable in the past. The Clinton brand is tested.

While there are pathways for Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden to beat her, I don’t think they will achieve that goal. I think that the fundamentals of this primary fight suggest that Clinton will still end up winning. For all the reasons above, I don’t think the Democratic nomination fight has changed that much.

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